Wheels falling off the ETS wagon?

Why on earth did NZ follow the Europeans and choose an ETS scheme rather than a simple Carbon Tax option. The logic escapes me.

Two recent articles confirm my opinion and illustrate the "Law of Unintended Consequences".

The first was a Piers McLaren's piece highlighting the planting boom hangover NZ has created in forestry:

"New Zealand’s problem is that we had a massive planting boom in the 1990s followed by very little planting in subsequent years. Steve Wakelin from Scion has calculated that we would need to plant about 50,000 hectares of new land every year, starting in the winter of 2012, to avoid our forest estate becoming a massive carbon source in the period 2023-2038. Why will it become a source? Because this is the logical result of a harvesting boom following one standard rotation after the planting boom of the 1990s. Our forests would pump out up to eighteen million tonnes of CO2-equivalent per year for some of those years. We will curse our forest “sinks”!

The second is a fundamental flaw in our ETS legislation revealed by Rob Stock:

"Motorists are paying up to $25 a tonne for carbon at the petrol pump while the price of carbon credits on the open market is just over $13, leading to windfall profits for petrol companies. New Zealand emitters are able to buy and surrender dubious, but cheap Eastern European "industrial gas" credits, banned or limited in other carbon markets, under New Zealand's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) at prices far below the expected $25 level when the scheme was established.


What was supposed to be a tax has morphed into a source of revenue for the oil companies! A host of unintended consequences is inevitable when you let bureaucrats loose to create complicated "market driven regulations".

What was wrong with a simple tax on all energy-based carbon emissions? The tax could be raised or lowered as required to change consumer behaviour. It would be a far simpler and justifiable source of revenue for the consolidated fund than the transaction and capital taxes being debated.

The Digger and the Dotterel

Who said you can't disturb nesting birds? Yes you can when heavy machinery and Banded Dotterels clash. Read on:

Okarito has a typical West Coast river bar that often closes during dry periods. Residents then have  wait patiently while the lagoon steadily rises to a seemingly alarming height when our local Council takes action and arranges for a digger to reopen the bar.

It just so happens that the beach is home to many Banded Dotterels who nest precariously in small scrapes in the sand.  Every spring they successfully raise pairs of chicks despite the mortal hazards of rogue waves, falcons, gulls, whitebait fishers, dogs, quad bikes, 4wd's, playing children and beach walkers.

Well a couple of years back the digger had begun the work to open the bar when I discovered a Dotterel nest right in it's path. Bugger! What to do? Contact DOC? Nah! Shift the digger?  Hell no - he'd been going for two hours!  I looked down on the poor wee bird sitting on her clutch of two eggs and said "lady your only chance is to move home".

So I made a little scape in the sand a metre away and picked up her eggs, plus the few sticks she had as furniture, and relocated her nest. I stood back and sure enough she trotted over and settled down again. "Good girl, now we'll do that again".

I repeated the process and the bird complied again. Well after a few hours and many more moves I moved Mrs Dotterel and her brood over 50 m out of harms way. Amazing. Towards the end she was clearly getting grumpy with my interference. She'd run between my legs with her wing down with a rather pained look in her eye "surely this is far enough?".

 Lesson is that birds are far more tolerant than what we are taught to expect, especially species that live amongst our daily activities.

Okarito 1080

Personal assessment of the success of an aerial 1080 operation at Okarito to protect kiwi (rowi) from stoat predation.

By Ian James

Okarito

Executive summary:

1.  Small mammal tracking data indicate successful control of rats and stoats.

2.  Seven tagged Kea losses is a serious problem.  Other native birds seem not affected and all will benefit from rat-free breeding season.

3.  Fresh possum sign post 1080 cast doubt on control success.  A few rabbits killed but hare numbers seem unaffected.

4.  The 1080 operation may have been done one year too soon as another rimu seed-fall is coming next year. Rat, then stoat, numbers may recover fast.

4.  Deer losses are unacceptable to local hunters.  Independent study of deer numbers, before and after 1080, suggest 45% of deer herd was lost.

5.  Deer losses could have been minimised had a deer repellant been used.  DOC policy and action does not recognise yet the change in legal status of deer to "game animals"  Lack of action is fueling the fire of opposition to 1080.

**********

It's now four weeks since the Okarito 1080 operation, time enough for some conclusions.

The good news is that DOC reports success in achieving their goal of protecting kiwi. Their small mammal tracking index showed rat and stoat numbers declined from 29% and 48% respectively, before 1080, to 1% and 0% afterwards.

 On the negative side, DOC has recorded 7 kea losses from a total of 32 tracked birds. That is a serious loss as an unknown number of other kea, not tracked, were likely lost as well?   Kea are as threatened as kiwi.

 How did the other birds fare? As far as I can judge pretty well. Tui, bellbird, morkpork, falcon and pigeons remain around the village in the same numbers as before. Grey warbler, fantail, fernbird, brown creeper and tomtit can still be heard along bush tracks but numbers are desperately low.  But they were like that before 1080.  The status of kakariki, riflemen and robins is unknown.

 All birds should benefit from a breeding season without rats and stoats. It is a pity that early 5-min bird count data was not repeated as long-term small bird monitoring data is available for both north and south Okarito forests.  That would have demonstrated that the wider avian ecosystem benefitted, not simply kiwi.

I am not sure that possum numbers have been effectively controlled.  Live possums can still be seen at night along the Okarito road and there are fresh possum tracks along the beaches south of Okarito. Perhaps the low bait sowing rate (< 2kg/ha) allowed the rats to quickly hoover up the baits before some possums got the chance. Hares were largely unaffected and 3 rabbits were found dead.

I do have concerns that the 1080 operation was done one year too soon.  I understand that rat numbers were barely high enough to ensure a successful 1080 control after a rimu mast last autumn. Normally rimu has two concurrent mast years followed by 3 years with little or no seed.  This year is no exception as rimu seed is ripening on trees at the present time (see image above).  This means that surviving rats will have a stoat-free holiday in a coming mast year so numbers should rebound rapidly.  That in turn will facilitate a rebound in stoat numbers - not the result hoped for.

The "numero uno" for local hunters is number of deer poisoned.  Sadly, no data was collected, more than an oversight in my opinion, given the level of concern amongst local hunters.  Deer are now legislated as "game animals" but this change appears yet to be fully implemented in DOC policy, or practice.  

To rectify matters, I have made a personal study by visiting 16 localities (good hunting spots) pre-1080 and made an assessment of the number of deer using the area i.e. the level of tracks, droppings and browse. I then repeated the assessment three weeks post-1080.

While observational studies can never be as scientifically rigorous as collecting hard data, I made special effort to avoid bias. In cases of doubt I erred on the side that no change in deer numbers had occurred. To protect local hunter's favorite spots the areas are not described. The results of my study are tabled below:

 Area.       Deer numbers before.       Deer numbers after.

A                           1                                      2
B                           2                                      0
C                           1                                      1
D                           1                                      0
E                            1                                     0                          
F                            0                                     0
G                           0                                     1
H                           2                                     2
I                             2                                     1
J                             2                                     1
K                           2                                     1
L                            5                                     1
M                           1                                     0
N                           3                                     1
O                           3                                     3
P                            5                                     5

Totals                   31                                   17

The last two areas where deer numbers are the same may not have had been directly poisoned. P is near a major river and O is adjacent to the poisoned area. A few other records from after 1080 observations were tracks of indeterminate age but included as a positive.

The result indicate net 45% reduction in deer numbers. Comparative published information show red deer losses of between 5% to 93% (Technical Review of Sodium Monofluoroacetate, Table 5; Eason, 2002) ).

Why were so many deer killed at Okarito given the dense vegetation and low sowing rate?  It was not the result we expected.  The timing was not good coming at the end of winter just before the first spring grass growth. However, that time is ideal for maximizing the rat and possum kill.

The 1080 loading in individual baits is high given that the small size of the target animals.  DOC staff supplied the following commentary:

"One 12 gram 0.15% 1080 bait contains 18 mg of 1080. Deer require 0.5mg/kg body weight for a 50% chance of death. Therefore a deer weighing 36kg live weight needs one bait, a deer weighing 72kg live weight would need two, etc etc. So if an adult hind eats three full size full strength 1080 baits she is in trouble".

So few baits are needed to kill a deer so each bait contains many times the lethal doses for a rat or possum, the target species. That surely is an area DOC can reconsider. If it took 10 or more baits to kill a deer then less may be killed. 


These deer losses are unacceptable to the hunting fraternity and, in their eyes, are as bad as the kea killed.  For locals for whom venison is the main table meat, the deer losses are a serious disappointment and were avoidable.  Local hunters support the kiwi recovery as strongly as any folk but the cost to their sport is too high.

The deer numbers will recover over time.  However,  putting the same hunting pressure and natural mortality rates as inputs to a simple population model shows deer numbers will not fully recover for at least five years.  In the interim, 1080 may need to be used again if rats recover quickly.


The obvious need is for DOC to use a deer repellant as standard practice.  A successful repellant was developed and tested in New Zealand in 2003 (Speedy, 2005).  Why is it not used?  Deer are not a conservation problem in lowland South Westland.  DOC staff offer excuses such as patent problems, difficulty of application, cost, etc. But excuses simply imply inertia.  Deer repellants are used worldwide and many are blood based, a product available cheap from NZ freezing works.  Given the angst the department suffers and the legal status of deer a change of policy and action is way overdue. Their current inaction is fueling the fire of opposition to 1080.

Landrover to Lexus

I've just bought a 10 year old Lexus 470 Landcruiser. MAN, I LOVE THIS TRUCK. It makes a gravel track feel like smooth tarmac. Many vehicle reviews say it's the best 4WD ever made and I heartily agree. I see on TV that Tony Blair has one to cruise between Israel and Palestine, no doubt bullet proof. Hence, it is not surprising that my "so-called" mates say, "that truck is above your allotted station in life, James".

You may ask how the hell did a bloke from South Westland afford it? Well blame the global financial crisis. Those financial scoundrels in Auckland dumped their fancy toys at near firesale prices. I just happened to see one when looking for a standard VX Cruiser. Why have a VX when a newer Lexus is cheaper?

Wind back the clock (time not the odo) to the 1960's. The only available 4WD was the Series 1 Landrover. The Forest Service had dozens of them along with Bedfords, Commers and Vanguards. The short-wheelbase, canvas-top Landrovers rattled us out to work along miles of dusty gravel roads towing a one ton trailer trailer with the packs and food. We'd arrive at somewhere like Kuripapanga or Makahu Saddle bone shaken and covered in road dust for a fortnight's work in the mountains.

Fast forward to the 1970's, the damm Landrovers were still there. We worked them to the max; broke axles, drowned the motors in mountain rivers, tore off the aluminum panels on logs, but no matter how badly abused, the Forestry workshops would rebuild them back roadworthy.

By the 1980's the British fleet had vanished and the Mazda ute and Toyota Hilux held supreme, thank God! The Japanese trucks were indestructible! I remember the first Mazda arriving at Harihari workshops. Giving it the once over, the mechanics discovered it had no grease nipples in the suspension (all joints were sealed unlike the British trucks which dripped oil and grease). That was a serious fault, so they drilled holes in every joint and screwed in a grease nipple. Not long after most Forest Service mechanics became redundant.

Now 4WD's are as high spec'd as luxury sedans and Lexus is the pinnacle of this trend. Sorry to the climate doom merchants but this truck is my bliss despite it's gas-guzzling ways (16 litres/100km). Apparently one pet dog has the carbon footprint of two Landcruisers so I'm unrepentant. As yet no freshly-shot deer carcass has been heaved onto the cream carpet in the boot. We'll cross that hurdle soon but in the meantime I glide along the bush tracks in supreme comfort looking for some unsuspecting Bambi.H

More thoughts on 1080 kea deaths at Okarito

What happened at Okarito with kea deaths brings into sharp focus the main issue with 1080. Yes, it is the best way to kill possums and other predators, but is the inevitable collateral damage to wildlife acceptable?

From a practical standpoint using aircraft to scatter 2kg of bait over a hectare with GPS navigation certainly beats walking. The problem is that baits fall anywhere in the forest and that makes it impossible to control who eats them. Unless baits either contain a poison that wildlife are resistant to, or have an added compound that repels wildlife but attracts the pests, then birds will be lost. In reality, neither alternative is foolproof.

Remember 1080 has been used over 50 years in Westland and collateral losses were just as concerning 50 years ago. I personally assessed the aftermath of the early 1970's operations in the Taramakau valley when possum number were extreme. Three weeks after the drop, the bush stank of dead possums and deer as well. Deer carcases were easy to find because they had a different rotten odour. Dead birds were also a feature though the majority were blackbirds. Initially, it was thought that too many small pieces of carrot were the cause of bird losses so the carrot cutters were redesigned. Research over subsequent years has brought many other changes including green dye, repellants, grain baits etc. But 50 years later we're still killing birds.

Kea losses to 1080 at Okarito

DOC have just announced that seven kea have been likely poisoned by the recent Okarito 1080 drop. Bugger! In the current political climate that's not a good look. My previous comments about kea deaths from 1080 carrots in the 1960's and 1970's were prophetic indeed.

Believe me, I personally knew the Okarito kea that died. On occasions, these particular birds and I would verbally abuse each other. Why? Because they'd announce my arrival in their territory to all other wildlife, including the deer. Nothing is more annoying to a deer hunter than a squawking kea, or a honking paradise duck, just as you arrive at the most likely spot for a deer. However, please don't assume I'm pleased about their demise. Far from it.

Kea are endearing because they're so damm curious. They just have to investigate anything new in their territory. Poison pellets arriving on bare ground would be irresistible, especially after a non toxic prefeed a week or so beforehand. Losses are inevitable bar using a poison that doesn't kill birds or perhaps poisoning at night if kea are not nocturnal.

The local DOC staff will be gutted as they have made genuine efforts to avoid this scenario. However, kea are not the only birds at risk. Morepork, falcons, harrier hawks, kaka, kakariki, fern birds, robins, and especially introduced blackbirds and finches, are all at risk. Certainly, using cinnamon repellant plus sowing a very low density of baits on the ground minimises losses but as is now aptly demonstrated it does not eliminate them.

DOC has difficult choices with the 1080 issue. Will the post-poison breeding success of birds make-up for those lost? Many bird species are in such low numbers now that any more losses maybe critical to their survival. A big re-think of the predator control strategy is unavoidable. In the meantime, DOC have a public relations crisis to cope with.

The use of 1080 in Okarito Forests

Today several helicopters have spread 1080 laced baits over the forests behind our village. It's all part of the DOC programme to kill the rats, possums, and stoats which threaten the survival of the Okarito brown kiwi "Rowi".

It's fair to say most people in Westland oppose the use of 1080. They have a variety of reasons; some passionately argue on the grounds of the inhumane treatment of animals - being poisoned by 1080 is not a pleasant end for any living creature. Others worry about their dogs, chemicals in water supplies, chemicals in the environment, so called "ecocide". Hunters object to the collateral loss of deer. I support the goal of destroying the pests but red deer are now officially a "game" animal. I wish DOC would take appropriate action to minimise deer losses.

To put this blog in perspective, I should disclosure that my early science career, in the 1960's and 1970's, involved calibrating how badly possums were destroying our rata and kamahi forests. The end result of this work was justification for sowing 1080 laden carrots over vast areas of mountain lands. The 1080 cetainly decimated the possums. The bush would stink of dead animals for weeks afterwards. But I fear how many birds, especially kea, we inadvertently wiped out. Since that time science has certainly refined the use of 1080 with the use of grain baits, cinnamon bird repellant and very low application rates compared to the old days.

Well after today's aerial action I took a walk in the bush to count baits. First impressions are that the sowing rates are really low. On an old trail which was still clear I found 13 baits over 500m distance. However, in undisturbed forest the baits were quite hard to find. They disappear into nooks and crannies under the fern cover. By the look of it I would expect rats and possums will be the main mammals affected. Where deer will be at risk is open ground such as well grazed grassy clearings and shingle river beds.

I've taken the trouble to count deer numbers from sign on a number of clearings over the last few weeks prior to poisoning. In a few weeks I'll return and try to estimate how many have survived. Watch this space.